On how we have far too much confidence explaining what just happened

πŸ’Ž On how we have far too much confidence explaining what just happened, but have limited ability to predict what will happen (hindsight bias)

All too often, we find ourselves unable to predict what will happen; yet after the fact we explain what did happen with a great deal of confidence. This “ability” to explain that which we cannot predict, even in the absence of any additional information, represents an important, though subtle, flaw in our reasoning. It leads us to believe that there is a less uncertain world than there actually is, and that we are less bright than we actually might be. For if we can explain tomorrow what we cannot predict today, without any added information except the knowledge of the actual outcome, then this outcome must have been determined in advance and we should have been able to predict it. The fact we couldn’t is taken as an indication of out limited intelligence rather than of the uncertainty that is in the the world.

Excerpt from: The Undoing Project: A Friendship that Changed the World by Michael Lewis

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